Study on treatment outcome and risk factors of multidrug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Shanghai / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo describe the characteristics of treatment outcomes of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis （MDR-TB） patients enrolled in second-line treatment in Shanghai from 2017 to 2018， and to analyze the influencing factors of treatment outcomes. MethodsTotally 182 MDR-TB patients were analyzed by using data collected from the China tuberculosis management information system， the hospital's electronic medical record information system， whole genome sequencing results and a questionnaire survey， and logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the factors affecting the success of treatment. ResultsIn 182 MDR-TB patients， the success rate of treatment was 65.4%， the loss to follow-up rate was 8.2%， the mortality rate was 4.9%， the unassessable rate was 13.7%， and the drug withdrawal rate was 7.7%. The factors affecting the success of treatment in MDR-TB patients included age （35‒ years old， OR=5.28， 95%CI： 1.58‒17.59， P=0.007； 55‒ years old， OR=16.30， 95%CI： 4.36‒60.92， P<0.001） and compliance to medication （OR=0.55， 95%CI： 0.42‒0.72， P<0.001）. ConclusionThe treatment success rate of MDR-TB patients in Shanghai from 2017 to 2018 is significantly higher than the average level in China. Older patients and patients with less compliant are at higher risk of adverse treatment outcomes.

Risk of developing tuberculosis in T-cell spot test of tuberculosis infection positive close contacts of tuberculosis patients in Shanghai: a prospective observational study / 中华传染病杂志

Objective:To investigate the risk and temporal characteristics of tuberculosis (TB) in persons with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among close contacts of TB patients in Shanghai.Methods:This was a prospective observational study, the study subjects were the close contacts of TB patients who tested positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection by T-cell spot test of tuberculosis infection (T-SPOT.TB) among the registered population in seven districts of Shanghai from 2009 to 2010. Questionnaire interview was applied to investigate the basic information and contact history.The LTBI cases during nine consecutive years were identified through the TB registration and reporting system.Cumulative incidence rate and incidence density of TB in tuberculosis-infected close contacts were estimated. Chi-square test was used to compare the incidence rate among different sex and age groups. Results:In total, 376 pulmonary TB patients and their 982 close contacts were enrolled in the baseline survey from 2009 to 2010. Of them, 287 close contacts were tested positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection by T-SPOT.TB.The median age of persons with LTBI at the time of survey was 54 years old, and 36.6%(105/287) were male. By the end of December 2019, five new TB cases were detected among the 287 close contacts with LTBI. The two-year and five-year cumulative incidence were 0.35% and 1.05%, respectively. The nine-year cumulative incidence was 1.74%(95% confidence interval 0.57%-4.02%). The median duration for TB occurrence was 3.67 years. The incidence density of TB was 1.875/1 000 person-years with a total of 2 666.75 observation person-years. There were no significant differences in the nine-year cumulative incidence of TB among close contacts with LTBI by age and sex ( χ2=0.600, <0.001, respectively, both P>0.05). Conclusion:The occurrence of TB among close contacts with LTBI is concentrated in the first five years after TB contact.

Drug resistence and NA gene characteristics of influenza virus A/H1N1(pdm09) studied in Shanghai during 2018-2019 / 上海预防医学

Objective A/H1N1(pdm09) viruses were the dominant strains in Shanghai during 2018-2019 influenza surveillance year.This study is to provide a scientific reference for clinical drug use by investigating the susceptibility of A/H1N1(pdm09) viruses to neuraminidase inhibitors(NAIs). Methods Sixty strains of A/H1N1(pdm09) viruses were randomly selected for testing the susceptibility and drug resistance to Oseltamivir and Zanamivir by means of neutaminidase inhibition and neuraminidase (NA) gene sequencing. Results The 60 epidemic strains all proved to be susceptible to Oseltamivir and Zanamivir and the susceptibility was not observed to be decreased or remarkably decreased.In genetic sequencing, NA was not observed to present amino acid mutation at the key sites and auxiliary sites in catalytic activity, which confirmed the results of the phototypic detection of neuraminidase inhibition. Conclusion The subtype influenza viruses A/H1N1(pdm09) circulating in Shanghai during 2018-2019 surveillance year are still sensitive to NAIs, which provides a scientific reference for clinical use of drugs.However, we monitored only a number of strains and think that the work monitoring antiviral susceptibility should be continued with the wide use of the drugs.

Pathogenic characteristics of hospitalized severe acute respiratory infections in Shanghai, China, 2015-2017 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective@#To understand the epidemiological and pathogenic characteristics of hospitalized severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in Shanghai, China.@*Methods@#From 2015 to 2017, one Tertiary hospital and one Secondary hospital were chosen as the surveillance sites. Two respiratory tract specimens per case were collected from SARI cases aged 15 years and older. One specimen was tested for 22 respiratory pathogens by RT-PCR, and the other specimen was cultured for 6 respiratory bacteria.@*Results@#A total of 287 SARI cases were enrolled for sampling and lab testing. 70.73% of the cases were aged 60 years and older, with 41.46% (119/287) were positive for at least one pathogen. Influenza virus was the predominant pathogen, accounting for 17.77% (51/287) of all SARI cases. Human rhinovirus/Enterovirus and Coronavirus were both accounting for 7.32% (21/287), followed by Mycoplasma pneumoniae (5.57%, 16/287). The positive rates of parainfluenza virus, bocavirus, adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus and human metapneumo virus were all less than 5%. Bacterial strains were identified in seven SARI cases, including Klebsiella pneumoniae (3 strains), Staphylococcus aureus (2 strains), Streptococcus pneumoniae (1 strain) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (1 strain). Two or Three pathogens were co-detected from 40 cases, accounting for 33.61% of 119 positive cases. The most common co-detected pathogens were influenza virus and Mycoplasma pneumoniae (10 cases). Influenza cases peaked in winter-spring and summer. Mycoplasma pneumoniae peaked in winter-spring season and overlapped with influenza. The positive rates of pathogens were not significantly different between different age groups.@*Conclusions@#Various respiratory pathogens can be detected from SARI cases aged 15 years and older. Influenza virus was the predominant pathogen and the co-detection of influenza virus with Mycoplasma pneumoniae the most common one.

Epidemiological characteristics and antibiotic resistance of Campylobacter spp. among diarrhea outpatients in Shanghai, 2013-2016 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective@#To understand the epidemiological characteristics and antibiotic resistance profiles of Campylobacter spp. in Shanghai from 2013 to 2016.@*Methods@#Stool samples collected from diarrhea outpatients were cultured for Campylobacter spp., using the membrane filter method in 23 hospitals under the sentinel programs, from 2013 to 2016. All the strains were identified by biochemical tests and PCR. Broth microdilution method was used to investigate the antibiotic resistance of 179 Campylobacter spp. strains that including azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, erythromycin, gentamicin, tetracycline, nalidixic acid, telycin, klinthromycin and flurbenicol.@*Results@#A total of 179 Campylobacter spp. strains were isolated from 10 444 stool samples (1.7%). Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli appeared as the predominant ones (94.4% and 5.6%). The incidence rate was higher in children than that in adults, with peaks of infections mainly from April to June and October to December. Campylobacter jejuni strains seemed highly resistant to ciprofloxacin (96.4%), tetracycline (83.4%) and nalidixic acid (81.7%). The resistant rates appeared higher on Campylobacter coli strains that isolated from patients. Some strains were resistant to multi-drugs.@*Conclusions@#Campylobacter spp. seemed one of the important pathogens that isolated from outpatients with diarrhea, in Shanghai. Both age and season related characteristics of Campylobacter spp. were seen. Campylobacter spp. isolated from patients was highly resistant to ciprofloxacin, tetracycline and nalidixic acid.

Pathogenic characteristics of viral gastroenteritis among pediatric inpatients under five years old during 2014-2017 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective@#To conduct a viral pathogen surveillance program on pediatric inpatients less than five years old with acute gastroenteritis in Shanghai and to better understand the pathogenic spectrum and molecular features in the target population, for setting up programs on control, prevention, medication and vaccine applications of the diseases.@*Methods@#Fecal samples were collected from inpatients less than 5 years old who were admitted to a pediatric hospital for having acute gastroenteritis. Information related to demographic, clinical and epidemiological features of the patients was also collected. Laboratory assays including ELISA, real-time PCR and nested PCR, were performed to detect the presence of pathogens as rotavirus, calicivirus, astrovirus and adenovirus.@*Results@#A total of 1 018 samples were collected (male 671 and 347 female), with the positive detection rate as 40.57% which peaked from autumn till winter, annually. Calicivirus and rotavirus A presented with the highest detection rates (24.75% and 13.95% respectively). The lowest detection rate was found in the 0-6 month-olds (32.20%). 65% of the patients with positive virus had received antibiotic treatment prior to the hospitalization. However, no statistically significant difference was seen, regarding the rates of antibiotic medication in the virus positive or negative populations (P>0.05). Data from the Rotavirus genotype analysis revealed that G9P[8] genotype was the predominant strain, and causing majority of rotavirus infections in all the age groups.@*Conclusions@#Among the inpatients under 5 years of age in Shanghai, the positive detection rate for Calicivirus was higher than that for rotavirus group A, suggesting the necessity to carefully monitor the changes regarding the pathogenic spectrum and subtypes of the virus. Antibiotics should also be attentively administered, together with the development of suitable vaccine.

Seasonality and etiological characteristics of infectious diarrhea in outpatients of 18 or above-year-old in Shanghai, 2014-2017 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective@#To understand the seasonality and etiological characteristics of infectious diarrhea in adults from Shanghai.@*Methods@#Adult patients with diarrhea who had visited the enteric disease clinics in 22 hospitals that carrying on the Diarrhea Comprehensive Surveillance sentinel programs in Shanghai during 2014-2017, were surveyed. Stool specimens were collected according to the different intervals of sampling and detected for 12 bacteria and 5 viruses. Concentration ratio and circular distribution method were used for data analysis.@*Results@#From 2014 to 2017, a total of 9 573 stool specimens were collected from the targeted diarrhea patients ≥18 years old (n=96 067), through the Shanghai Diarrhea Comprehensive Surveillance program. The positive rate of detection was 46.44%. Seasonal peaks of infectious diarrhea were both seen in summer (bacteria peak, diarrheagenic Escherichia coli and Vibrio parahaemolyticus, etc.) and in winter (virus peak, Norovirus, etc.). Both bacterial and viral infections presented seasonal concentration (Raleigh’s test P<0.001) but more obvious with bacterial infection. Viral infection accounted for 60.19% of the cause of infectious diarrhea. The top five predominant pathogens appeared as Norovirus, Rotavirus, diarrheagenic Escherichia coli, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, and Salmonella spp..@*Conclusions@#Among the adult outpatients with infectious diarrhea in Shanghai, obvious seasonality was seen, with peaks in both summer and winter. Viral infection with Norovirus in particular, appeared as the predominant source of infection. Active, continuous and comprehensive diarrhea-related surveillance programs would be able to monitor the changing dynamic of pathogen spectrum, and lead to the adoption of targeted preventive measures.

The first identification of epidemic clone of enterotoxic Escherichia coli O∶6 serogroup highly associated with azithromycin resistance in Shanghai / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective@#To investigate the molecular characterization of adult diarrhea cases caused by enterotoxic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and explore the practical model of epidemiology for laboratory technique and data needs based on the surveillance network.@*Methods@#Epidemiological design and sampling targeted adult cases ETEC caused diarrhea in epidemic season. The enterotoxin type, serogroup, resistance, colonization factor and molecular type of ETEC were identified. Multiple dynamic phenotypic characteristics of ETEC were indicated by multidimensional and multivariable data.@*Results@#From 2016 to 2018, 84 eligible ETEC strains were detected. The dominant serums/toxins were O∶6 (STh), O∶25 (LT), O∶159 (STh), O∶153 (STh). O∶6 (STh+CS21), which replaced O∶25 and O∶159 as the popular clones in 2018. Six cases of O∶153 (STh+CFA/I+CS8+PT34) in outbreak in 2017 were imported ones. The resistance rates of ETEC strains detected in adults to sulfasoxazole, naproxinic acid, ampicillin and azithromycin were more than 30%, multidrug resistance (MDR) reached 58.3%. Serum/toxin types suggested that attenuated strains were more likely to become MDR. Molecular typing confirmed that the genetic similarity of the dominant clone of O∶6 serogroup (PT20-24) was higher than O∶25 and O∶159. There was a high correlation between the minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) of azithromycin and the resistant gene mphA (87.5%, 28/32). O∶6 (STh+CS21+mphA) resistant clone was first detected in 2016.@*Conclusion@#A new epidemic clone in adult ETEC diarrhea cases in Shanghai was O∶6 (STh+CS21+mphA). For the first time the association between azithromycin resistance gene mphA and a serum group of ETEC was observed. Multidimensional and multivariate analysis techniques based on epidemiology can help reveal the potential transmission pattern of ETEC for the accurate surveillance and early warning of outbreaks.

Acceptance of Chemo-prophylaxis for Latent Tuberculosis Infection among High School/College Student Contacts of Tuberculosis Patients in Shanghai, China / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Student contacts of tuberculosis (TB) cases are susceptible to latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), and chemo-prophylaxis can reduce the risk of active TB among them. This study aimed to assess the acceptance of chemo-prophylaxis for LTBI among students, and their concerns regarding TB and its preventive treatment. A total of 560 students contacts were included in the investigation. The extent of contact was categorized from high to low (4 levels) with 12.9% of the students being close contacts. About 87.0% of the students were willing to receive chemo-prophylaxis if diagnosed with, LTBI, whereas 73 students declined. Students with a higher level of knowledge about TB (aOR = 1.11) or close contact with TB patients (aOR = 4.30) were more likely to accept treatment. To conclude, education regarding TB transmission is necessary. Moreover, LTBI detection should be integrated into the current school-based TB contact investigation.

Epidemiological and etiological surveillance study of infectious diarrhea in Shanghai in 2013-2015 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#To analyze the pathogen spectrum and epidemiological characters of infectious diarrhea cases in Shanghai from July 2013 to June 2015.@*Methods@#From July 2013 to June 2015, using multi-stage sampling to select 22 hospitals as adult diarrhea surveillance sentinels, and 3 district central hospitals together with Shanghai municipal children's hospital as children diarrhea surveillance sentinels. A total of 6 267 diarrhea cases were sampled. The demographic characters, main clinical manifestations and signs of cases were investigated, and stool specimens were collected to conduct the bacteria culture and virus nucleic acid detection. The difference of positive rate of bacteria and virus in different seasons, and age difference of relevant pathogens were compared.@*Results@#Among 6 267 cases, 3 262 (52.05%) were male, and most of them were in 50-69 years group (1 999 cases, 31.90%) and 30-49 years group (1 691 cases, 26.98%). Totally, 2 783 positive specimens were detected out of 6 267 specimens with the positive rate being 44.41%. A total of 7 kinds of bacteria and 5 kinds of viruses were detected. The positive rate for bacterium was 12.61%(790 cases), mainly being vibrio parahaemolyticus (256 cases), diarrheagenic E.coli (239 cases) and salmonella (209 cases). The positive rate for virus was 31.80% (1 993 cases), mainly being norovirus (1 172 cases) and rotavirus (546 cases). The positive rates of viruses in winter of 2013 and 2014 were 57.89%(429 cases) and 62.14%(522 cases) respectively, higher than those of bacterium in the same periods which were 2.43% (18 cases) and 2.86% (24 cases) respectively. The positive rates of bacterium in summer of 2013, 2014 and 2015 were 14.56% (97 cases), 25.29%(258 cases) and 21.21% (49 cases), also higher than those of viruses in the same periods which were 7.51% (50 cases), 8.43%(86 cases) and 11.69% (27 cases) respectively, all of the above differences were statistically significant (P<0.05). The cases of 50-69 years group had the highest positive rate of pathogen, which was 47.57% (951/1 999). Secondly was those of 30-49 years group with 47.13% (797/1 691). Positive rate of pathogen for cases of 0-2 years group was 35.74% (213/596).@*Conclusion@#The pathogen spectrumes of infectious diarrhea in Shanghai are mainly vibrio parahaemolyticus, diarrheagenic E.coli, salmonella, norovirus and rotavirus. The summer and winter season peak was obvious. Specific etiological surveillance and control strategies should be strengthened aiming at focus groups including children and the elderly in different seasons.

Practice and consideration on prevention and control of the emerging and imported infectious diseases / 上海预防医学

The health of human, animal and environment is under serious threat from the increasing emerging infectious diseases (EID).Through strengthening the three-level disease prevention network, expanding infectious disease surveillance system and multi-sectoral joint cooperation mechanism, the quick, effective and strong prevention and control system of emerging and imported infectious diseases has been established in Shanghai.Since 2013, through effective control of EIDs such as severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS), influenza A H1N1 and H7N9 avian influenza, as well as imported infectious diseases (IID) such as Ebola virus disease, middle east respirators syndrome(MERS), Zika virus disease and yellow fever, the surveillance and response capacity has been improved significantly, and the prevention and control system has been improved gradually.As an international megalopolis under globalization, Shanghai is faced with the challenges as follows: growing pressure to infectious diseases prevention and control, increasingly serious situation of EIDs and IIDs;prevention and control skills need to be improved and the current personnel cannot meet with the demands.In order to meet the challenges, infectious disease monitoring and early warning technology should be strengthened; the sensitivity of infectious disease surveillance and early-warning capacity should be improved; EID symptom complex monitoring system should be established; personnel training should be strengthened, domestic and international cooperation and exchange should be carried out;so as to safeguard public health security and public health in Shanghai.

Epidemiology of confirmed and suspected norovirus outbreaks in Shanghai, 2010-2014 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To understand the epidemiologic characteristics of confirmed and suspected norovirus outbreaks in Shanghai during 2010-2014.Methods The investigation reports of confirmed and suspected norovirus outbreaks in Shanghai from 2010 to 2014 were analyzed.Results A total of 80 norovirus outbreaks, involving 2 399 cases, were reported during this period, and the overall attack rate was 4.17％.The median of the outbreak duration was 4.5 days and the incidence peaked 2 days later averagety for an outbreak.The outbreaks mainly occurred in autumn and winter,53 outbreaks occurred during October-February, accounting for 66.25％.Seventy five outbreaks occurred in schools, child care settings and nursing houses, accounting for 93.75％.The attack rates in hospitalized patients and the elders in nursing houses were higher than those in pre-school and school aged children, the differences were statistically significant (x2=683.12, P＜0.01).The attack rates in medical staff and nurses in hospitals and nursing houses or staff in pre-schools and schools were lower.Vomiting, the main clinical symptom, occurred in 1 900 cases (79.20％), diarrhea and fever developed in 694 cases (28.93％) and 364 cases (15.17％) respectively.The differences were statistically significant (x2 =2 251.48, P＜0.01).The outbreaks were mainly caused by short common exposures and contact with cases.Conclusion The surveillance for norovirus infection should be strengthened in hospitals, schools and others with the crowed during autumn-winter.The protection of risk population should be enhanced.

Genetic characterization of the isolates of measles viruses in Hongkou district of Shanghai, China in 2012 / 中华流行病学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To ascertain the genotype of measles viruses isolated in 2012 and genetic characterization of measles viruses in Hongkou district of Shanghai during 2000-2012.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Measles virus was isolated from throat swab specimens collected from suspected measles cases and 450 bp fragment of C terminus on nucleoprotein (N) gene was amplified by RT-PCR. Sequence analysis was conducted to ascertain the genotype and to compare the difference of nucleotide with other measles virus strain announced by GenBank during 2000-2012. Measles virus genotype was analyzed. Epidemiological investigation was conducted.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Phylogenetic analysis showed that 7 measles virus samples were isolated from 34 throat swab specimens with 6 of them belonged to H1 genotype, 1 belonged to D8 genotype of H1 genotype. H1a appeared the main part of Shanghai measles virus. Epidemiological survey showed that D8 was an imported case, also the first case detected since 2000.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The genotype distribution of measles virus in Hongkou was identified the same as elsewhere in Shanghai. D8 was an imported case, detected for the first time since 2000. The results suggested that viral gene sequencing and genotyping should be regularly conducted at the measles laboratories in Shanghai to strengthen the networking monitoring program of the disease.</p>

Study on the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of scarlet fever in Shanghai,2005-2012 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To systemically analyze the epidemiological characteristics,molecular markers of circulating group A Streptococcus (GAS) isolates and the incidence trend of scarlet fever in Shanghai from 2005 to 2012 as well as to explore the practice of GAS isolates surveillance program and the combined mathematical model in the early warning of scarlet fever.Methods The morbidity series of scarlet fever were retrieved to analyze and fit the combined mathematical model which comprised an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and a neural network.GAS isolates surveillances programs were implemented on community healthy population,using the emm typing and superantigens detecting method in Shanghai during the epidemic period of scarlet fever in 2008,2010 and 2012.The standardized prevalence of GAS isolates was estimated with the demographic data.Results From 2005 to 2012,there were a total of 9410 scarlet fever cases reported in Shanghai including local registered residents and immigrant population,showing that the distribution of patients as sporadic.The morbidity kept rising with seasonal and periodical variations and the peak was in 2011.The average morbidity was 6.012 per 100 000 persons.Morbidity in the the suburban was significantly higher than that in the urban areas.Children at 4 to 8 years old were easy to be involved.The mean error rate of single ARIMA model,ARIMA-GRNN and back propagation artificial neural network combined model were 0.268,0.432 and 0.131 respectively.The predicted incidence of scarlet fever in 2013 would keep fluctuating within a narrow range from 0.446 to 3.467 per 100 000 persons.A total number of 4409 throat swab samples were collected through the GAS isolates surveillance programs in 2008,2010 and 2012.The standardized prevalence of GAS isolates in each year were 0.000％,0.000％ and 1.092％.18 GAS isolates were identified and 15 isolates (83.33％) belonged to emm 12.0.Conclusion The morbidity of scarlet fever would continue to maintain an upward trend in Shanghai and the techniques used in GAS isolates surveillance program and in the combined mathematical model could be applied for the early warning system on scarlet fever.

Genetic characterization analysis on the first imported measles virus of genotype D8 in Chinese mainland / 病毒学报

This study analyzed the genetic characterization on first imported measles virus of genotype D8 in Chinese mainland. Serums were collected from the suspicious MV patients to detect IgM antibody in ELISA. Throat swabs were cultured in Vero/SLAM cell line to get measles virus isolates. Part of the nucleotide sequence of the 3' terminus of nucleoprotein (N) gene of these isolates were amplified by RT-PCR, and the amplicons were directly sequenced. The phylogenetic analysis was based on the nucleotide sequence about 456 base pairs of the 3' terminus of nucleoprotein (N) gene. Results showed that it reported 1 105 suspicious measles cases in shanghai, 2012, including 590 confirmed cases and 2 clinical case. The reported morbidity was 2.52 per one hundred thousand. 247 measles viruses were isolated from 984 throat swabs specimen. Most of them belonged to sub-genotype H1a except Shanghai12-239 was genotype D8. The homology of nucleotide and amino acid sequences were 97.8% and 98.6% respectively between Shanghai12-239 and WHO reference strain (Manchester. UNK30.94(D8)AF280803). Those were 89.6%-94.5% and 88.7%-95.3% between Shanghai12-239 and WHO reference strains of other genotypes.

Study and application of transmission tracking analysis technique during incubation period of respiratory infectious diseases / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To develop a new transmission tracking analysis technique during incubation period of respiratory infectious diseases, and to discuss its practical value in the field survey of infectious diseases.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The classical epidemiological theory was integrated with geographic information system. The transmission tracking analysis technique was established based on the modeling platform ArcGIS Engine Developer Kit 9.3, using the techniques of address matching, shortest path analysis and buffer analysis, and programming by Visual C++. Eight serious sever acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Shanghai in year 2003 were then chose as prototype to set up the test cases A-H. The electronic map and population density data were separately collected from Institute of Surveying and Mapping in Shanghai and Shanghai statistical yearbook 2003, to calculate and explore the parameters as length of transmission path, area of buffer zone and key departments by single and multi case analysis module.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The single case transmission tracking analysis showed that the length of transmission track of case A was 129.89 km during April 25th to 29th in 2003, including 12 tracing point and 108 intimate contacts, and the total area of buffer zone was 7.11 km(2) including 81 important institutes, naming 72 schools, 6 kindergartens and 3 gerocomiums. The multi-case transmission tracking analysis showed that the 8 cases shared 5 tracks without any temporal communication. However, there was a spatial communication whose length was 1.42 km and area was 0.60 km(2). There were no important institutes found in this communication area.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Transmission tracking technique is practicable and efficient to trace the source of infection, analyze the transmission tracks, establish the isolation buffer area and explore the important geographic positions in epidemiological investigation.</p>

Prevalence and risk factors on the resistance related to second-line drugs among multi-drug resistant tuberculosis cases in Shanghai, China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To determine the prevalence and risk factors on second-line drug resistance in patients with multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in Shanghai,China.Methods All pulmonary TB patients with sputum culture positivity detected in Shanghai during January to December,2009,were enrolled.All of the pretreatment sputum-positive cultures samples were tested for routine specimen identification and routine drug susceptibility testing for first-line drugs (Isoniazid,Rrifampin,Ethambutol and Streptomycin).Drug susceptibility testing on second-line anti-TB drugs (Ofloxcin,Amikacin,Kanamycin,Capreomycin,P-aminosalicylic acid and Prothionamide) was routinely performed on isolates of Mycobacterium (M.) TB with MDR.Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the risk factors regarding second-line drug resistance.Results A total of 1867 patients infected with M.TB isolates were diagnosed at the TB hospitals/clinics in Shanghai during the study period,of whom 112 (6.0％) were MDR-TB,in which 58 cases (51.8％) showed resistant to at least one of the second-line drugs tested and 10 cases belonged to extensively drug-resistant.In the multivariate analyses,MDR-TB patients who were aged 45-59 years (aOR=4.76,P=0.001 ),with sputum smear positivity (aOR=6.51,P=0.026) were significantly more likely to show resistance to second-line drugs.Conclusion The prevalence of second-line drug resistance among MDR-TB patients was high in Shanghai.MDR-TB patients who were under age of 45-59 years and with sputum smear positivity would represent important common risk factors for the resistance to second-line drugs.

A cost-benefit analysis of the influenza H1N1 vaccination in the primary and junior school in Shanghai / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To evaluate the cost-benefit for the Influenza Type A H1N1 Virus (Influenzae H1N1) vaccination in Shanghai primary and junior schools.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>A semi-experiment study was selected to evaluate the cost-benefit for Influenza H1N1 vaccination in primary and junior schools in 6 districts of Shanghai, including 414 636 students in total. According to the voluntary principle, the students were divided into the vaccinated group (233 445 students) and control group (181 191 students). The information of vaccine cost was collected from CDC in 19 districts in Shanghai by questionnaire; and the information of medical treatment cost was collected from questionnaire and abstracts of retrospective medical records, which included 31 mild cases and 15 severe cases. The cost-benefit analysis was conducted by health economic evaluation.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>In total, there were 414 636 students enrolled in this study; while 233 445 (56.3%) students were in the vaccinated group and 181 191 in the control group. The attack rate in vaccinated group and control group was 0.61% (1433/233 445) and 1.76% (3166/181 191) respectively. The protection ratio was 65.34% ((1.76 - 0.61)/1.76) in the vaccinated group. The average cost of Influenza H1N1 was 36.81 yuan/person; and the average cost of medical treatment was (358.3 ± 243.6) yuan/mild case and (49 188.4 ± 99 917.3) yuan/severe case. The total benefit of vaccination in schools was 19 155 566.3 yuan, and the net benefit was 10 560 673.7 yuan. Therefore, the benefit-cost ratio was 2.24:1.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Influenza H1N1 vaccine could protect the students from Influenza H1N1 infection, and the cost-benefit analysis showed that the intervention strategy was worth trying.</p>

Establishing and applying of autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict the incidence rate of dysentery in Shanghai / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the feasibility of establishing and applying of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the incidence rate of dysentery in Shanghai, so as to provide the theoretical basis for prevention and control of dysentery.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>ARIMA model was established based on the monthly incidence rate of dysentery of Shanghai from 1990 to 2007. The parameters of model were estimated through unconditional least squares method, the structure was determined according to criteria of residual un-correlation and conclusion, and the model goodness-of-fit was determined through Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC). The constructed optimal model was applied to predict the incidence rate of dysentery of Shanghai in 2008 and evaluate the validity of model through comparing the difference of predicted incidence rate and actual one. The incidence rate of dysentery in 2010 was predicted by ARIMA model based on the incidence rate from January 1990 to June 2009.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The model ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 2)(12) had a good fitness to the incidence rate with both autoregressive coefficient (AR1 = 0.443) during the past time series, moving average coefficient (MA1 = 0.806) and seasonal moving average coefficient (SMA1 = 0.543, SMA2 = 0.321) being statistically significant (P < 0.01). AIC and SBC were 2.878 and 16.131 respectively and predicting error was white noise. The mathematic function was (1-0.443B) (1-B) (1-B(12))Z(t) = (1-0.806B) (1-0.543B(12)) (1-0.321B(2) x 12) micro(t). The predicted incidence rate in 2008 was consistent with the actual one, with the relative error of 6.78%. The predicted incidence rate of dysentery in 2010 based on the incidence rate from January 1990 to June 2009 would be 9.390 per 100 thousand.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>ARIMA model can be used to fit the changes of incidence rate of dysentery and to forecast the future incidence rate in Shanghai. It is a predicted model of high precision for short-time forecast.</p>

Study on the risk factors of HBV infection in children under the age of 15 in Shanghai / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To identify the risk factors of HBV infection in children under the age of 15 in Shanghai and to further enhance the effectiveness of hepatitis B vaccines among children.Methods Using the data from Shanghai under the national hepatitis B serum epidemiological survey in 2006, 599 children aged 1-15 years old were selected as subjects, the subjects were divided into study group and control group by their status on HBV infection. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify the risk factors of HBV infection among children.Results Out of 599 children, 15 of them were infected by HBV with the infection rate as 2.50%.Data from both univariate and multivariate analysis showed that the HBsAg status of their mothers during pregnancy, the history of hepatitis B vaccination and place of birth appeared to be risk factors of hepatitis B infection (P＜ 0.05 ), with the OR value of 5.338 for HBsAg-positive mother, 42.118 for no history of hepatitis B vaccination and 12.239 for home-delivery, respectively. Conclusion In order to further decrease the rate of HBV infection among children in Shanghai, intervention should be focusing on both migrant and HBsAg-postive pregnant women. Also, the condition of hepatitis B vaccine immunization for newborns in some township hospitals should be improved.